Making Bad Decisions
History has often turned on bad decisions, which sometimes yielded disastrous results. Here are three examples:
On February 20, 1959 the government of Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker suddenly cancelled all work on the Avro Arrow project. This plane was the fastest, most advanced jet interceptor in the world and promised to vault Canada to unequalled global leadership in aviation. The reasons were vague – cost, advancing missile technology and American political pressure heading the list. The result? American companies quickly scooped up Canada’s brilliant aeronautical engineers, whose aerospace expertise then helped launch the United States’s space program. Despite many notable achievements since, the Canadian aviation industry has never fully recovered.
In 1876, Western Union held a monopoly on the telegraph and was one of the richest and most powerful companies on Earth. William Orton, the company president, was offered the patent for a new communications invention; the price was $100,000. The offer was made by a wealthy Bostonian, Gardiner Hubbard. Orton turned him down. The invention was Alexander Graham Bell’s telephone, which eventually revolutionized communications world-wide. At the time, the Bell patent became the single most valuable patent in history.
Kodak invented the first digital camera in 1975, long before digital technology began to explode. The giant of film photography decided there was no future in converting to digital because it would weaken their film business – so they chose not to develop the technology any further. By the time Kodak realized digital was the future, it was too late. The company filed for bankruptcy in 2012
Every day we are faced with making dozens of decisions, most relatively safe and with minimal consequences. However, there are times when decision making is complex and the outcome is unknown. Experience – my own and others – suggests these are the critical steps in making good decisions:
Gather and analyze the data. Military commanders throughout history, despite possessing all available intelligence have often failed to analyze the information correctly. The result? Battles lost that should have been won.
Think near and far. Resist the temptation to focus on the quick and immediate solution. Long-term vision is equally if not more important.
Ask for advice. Nobody is an expert in everything, so when you face a situation that demands specialized expertise, be sure to get it. Understand that asking for help is not a sign of weakness – it means you’re trying your hardest to make a wise decision that will stand the test of time.